{"id":1551,"date":"2016-12-07T08:26:17","date_gmt":"2016-12-07T14:26:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ctsfutures.com\/?p=1551"},"modified":"2016-12-13T14:28:34","modified_gmt":"2016-12-13T20:28:34","slug":"morning-thoughts-dec-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-dec-7\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Thoughts – Dec 7"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>Grains<\/span> – <\/u>
\nCensus trade numbers for October were released yesterday, and considering the discrepancy between inspections and Census figures caused some confusion for some last marketing year, it might be worth reviewing these in more detail going forward.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll start on soybeans as that was really where the confusion popped up last year.\u00a0 Oddly enough, however, so far this year the difference in inspections vs. Census is running in reverse of what we saw last year.\u00a0 MYTD Census exports have totaled roughly 554 mil bu, which is actually about 8 mil bu smaller than inspections would imply.\u00a0 Last year Census exports were \u201conly\u201d 455 mil bu, but this was about 6 mil bu larger than inspections had implied.\u00a0 Census shipments consistently ran above inspections last year.\u00a0 No matter how you look at it, exports for the first two months of the year are off to an exceptionally strong start as shown in the chart.<\/p>\n

\"Sep<\/p>\n

The other Census figure worth looking at this morning is meal.\u00a0 We don\u2019t get a meal inspections figure of course, so we\u2019re forced to compare this against the FAS shipment data.\u00a0 Census meal shipments for Oct were 933k short tons, which was sharply higher than what was implied in the FAS shipment data.\u00a0 Looking back over the past several years, this is the biggest monthly discrepancy I see between the two totals.\u00a0 With the Census figure coming in so strongly, perhaps we do need to reconsider our disagreement with the WASDE export figure on meal, which to this point has looked too high.\u00a0 It still looks too high relative to commitments, but if Census continues to exceed shipments like this it could come within the ballpark.\u00a0 At the same time, if exports are indeed going to be so strong, it might also weigh on our implied domestic demand calculations.\u00a0 In the end I don\u2019t know if it\u2019ll be a big game changer on the meal balance sheet, but rather we might just be shifting some demand totals from domestic use to exports.\u00a0 We\u2019ll need to watch these numbers closely in the next few months for a better handle on things.<\/p>\n

Otherwise there isn\u2019t much to get excited about in the Census figures.\u00a0 Corn shipments were roughly 143 mil bu, which came in just under inspections but not by a significant degree.\u00a0 Like meal, oil Census exports were larger than implied by the shipment data, so that is something we\u2019ll want to watch a bit more closely going forward as well.\u00a0 Census ethanol exports were 132 mil gal vs. 75 mil last year, supporting our belief that ethanol inventories are having a hard time building as they normally do at this time of year due to solid export demand.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER<\/u><\/strong>:<\/strong>
\nThe information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author\u00a0 and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or trading strategies of Nesvick Trading Group LLC and its subsidiaries. Nesvick Trading Group, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Officers, employees, and affiliates of Nesvick Trading Group, LLC may or may not, from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities and derivatives (for their own account or others), if any, referred to in this commentary. There is risk of loss in trading futures and options and it is not suitable for all investors. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RETURNS. Nesvick Trading Group LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties or any trading decision taken by persons not intended to view this material.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Grains – Census trade numbers for October were released yesterday, and considering the discrepancy between inspections and Census figures caused some confusion for some last marketing year, it might be worth reviewing these in more detail going forward. We\u2019ll start on soybeans as that was really where the confusion popped up last year.\u00a0 Oddly enough, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1552,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nMorning Thoughts - Dec 7 - CTS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href="../wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Exports.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"910\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"661\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"David Zelinski\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@CTSfutures\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@CTSfutures\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"David Zelinski\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-dec-7\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-dec-7\/\",\"name\":\"Morning Thoughts - Dec 7 - CTS\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-dec-7\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-dec-7\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Exports.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-12-07T14:26:17+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-12-13T20:28:34+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#\/schema\/person\/2ebea80d35d247463c6be35dcf694285\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-dec-7\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-dec-7\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-dec-7\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Exports.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Exports.png\",\"width\":910,\"height\":661,\"caption\":\"Sep and Oct US Soybean Exports\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-dec-7\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Morning Thoughts – Dec 7\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/\",\"name\":\"CTS\",\"description\":\"Cunningham Trading Systems\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#\/schema\/person\/2ebea80d35d247463c6be35dcf694285\",\"name\":\"David Zelinski\",\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/nesvick.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/author\/dzelinski\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Morning Thoughts - Dec 7 - CTS","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-dec-7\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Morning Thoughts - Dec 7 - CTS","og_description":"Grains – Census trade numbers for October were released yesterday, and considering the discrepancy between inspections and Census figures caused some confusion for some last marketing year, it might be worth reviewing these in more detail going forward. 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