{"id":1559,"date":"2016-12-12T07:38:37","date_gmt":"2016-12-12T13:38:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ctsfutures.com\/?p=1559"},"modified":"2016-12-13T14:28:26","modified_gmt":"2016-12-13T20:28:26","slug":"morning-thoughts-2016-12-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2016-12-12\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Thoughts – Dec 12"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/a>Grains<\/u> –
\nOn Thursday Brazil\u2019s Conab issued a soybean production estimate of 102.4 mmt, and Friday WASDE followed along maintaining their 102 mmt production estimate.\u00a0 I thought it might be worth pointing out that both of these estimates seem to be implying a sub-trend national average yield.\u00a0 A chart showing the Conab national yield estimates since the early 90\u2019s is attached along with the trendline. You can see this year\u2019s Conab projection is slightly under the trend.\u00a0 Conab\u2019s current yield estimate is for 3,022 kg\/ha while the trend yield is closer to 3,080 kg\/ha.\u00a0 If the national average yield were to increase to the trend level as shown, it would increase production by roughly 2 mmt using the Conab area estimate.<\/p>\n
Up to this point, most would seem to agree that weather conditions in Brazil have been pretty favorable.\u00a0 In fact, some would argue that we could be working towards above<\/em> trend levels for Brazil.\u00a0 I think the main area of concern for Brazil has been southern areas where rainfall totals have been lighter than usual.\u00a0 If rainfall improves in these regions going forward, we could certainly start to see more talk of above-yield potential for Brazil.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n DISCLAIMER<\/u><\/strong>:<\/strong> Grains – On Thursday Brazil\u2019s Conab issued a soybean production estimate of 102.4 mmt, and Friday WASDE followed along maintaining their 102 mmt production estimate.\u00a0 I thought it might be worth pointing out that both of these estimates seem to be implying a sub-trend national average yield.\u00a0 A chart showing the Conab national yield estimates […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1560,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n
\nThe information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author\u00a0 and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or trading strategies of Nesvick Trading Group LLC and its subsidiaries. Nesvick Trading Group, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Officers, employees, and affiliates of Nesvick Trading Group, LLC may or may not, from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities and derivatives (for their own account or others), if any, referred to in this commentary. There is risk of loss in trading futures and options and it is not suitable for all investors. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RETURNS. Nesvick Trading Group LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties or any trading decision taken by persons not intended to view this material<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"