<\/p>\n<\/a>Grains<\/u> –
\nWhen reviewing the Fats & Oils report, implied domestic meal consumption turned out to be pretty solid during the month of Nov.\u00a0 We don\u2019t have official Census trade data just yet so this is subject to change, but implied domestic meal disappearance in Nov was up roughly 8% YOY.\u00a0 Although we\u2019re only two months into the 16\/17 marketing year, MYTD domestic disappearance is estimated up roughly 5% from the same period last year.\u00a0 WASDE\u2019s current projection is calling for \u201conly\u201d a 2.7% YOY increase in domestic disappearance.\u00a0 It appears likely to me that while WASDE\u2019s meal export projection might still be overly optimistic, it’s likely that this can be offset by a higher domestic use estimate.\u00a0 We\u2019ll also need to continue to monitor production yields.<\/p>\n
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The strong domestic disappearance of meal perhaps shouldn\u2019t be a huge surprise considering record hog numbers.\u00a0 Still, the thought process up to this point has been that meal has a lot of competition around the country.\u00a0 As you can see in the attached charts, DDG prices have been grinding lower and the meal\/DDG ratio is near recent highs.\u00a0 Though not pictured here, canola meal has also been widely touted as a possible replacement for meal in rations.\u00a0 Still, the F&O numbers imply the meal is finding a home in the domestic market for now.\u00a0 As noted before the meal stocks numbers in the F&O report are a bit questionable so perhaps we\u2019re dealing with a GI-GO situation.\u00a0 We\u2019ve also heard of aflatoxin issues with DDGs that likely are a) depressing spot prices due to discounts and b) preventing widespread inclusion of DDGs in rations.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\n
DISCLAIMER<\/u><\/strong>:<\/strong> Grains – When reviewing the Fats & Oils report, implied domestic meal consumption turned out to be pretty solid during the month of Nov.\u00a0 We don\u2019t have official Census trade data just yet so this is subject to change, but implied domestic meal disappearance in Nov was up roughly 8% YOY.\u00a0 Although we\u2019re only two […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1669,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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