<\/p>\n<\/a>Grains<\/u> –
\nExport sales are out this morning before the more important USDA reports later in the afternoon.\u00a0 Here are expectations:<\/p>\n
Corn 450-900
\nSoybeans 400-800
\nSoymeal 40-160
\nSoyoil 5-30
\nWheat 150-300<\/p>\n
As you can see, expectations are down from what we\u2019ve been used to.\u00a0 This seems pretty reasonable as demand is shifting elsewhere on beans and I wouldn\u2019t be shocked to see sales come on the low end of the range.\u00a0 Corn sales are always tricky to guess, but the above range seems like a good enough effort for me.\u00a0 Recall we had 100k mt of wheat flash sales reported, so I wouldn\u2019t be shocked to see wheat sales come in above the expected range.<\/p>\n
One more note on bean sales, recall inspections on Monday showed shipments to Netherlands and Belgium when there were no prior sales on the books.\u00a0 This will likely be switched from unknown sales on today\u2019s report.\u00a0 Please don\u2019t be \u201cthat guy\u201d who calls this cancellations of unknown sales.<\/p>\n
One of the key numbers to watch today will be the USDA\u2019s winter wheat area projection.\u00a0 To the best of my knowledge there isn\u2019t a solid price-measured way of forecasting today’s wheat area estimate, at least nothing I\u2019ve found yet.\u00a0 Instead, the best way I\u2019ve found to look towards today\u2019s number is simply to \u201ctake the under\u201d vs. the average guess.\u00a0 As the chart shows here, the actual winter wheat planting figure very consistently comes in below expectations in January.\u00a0\u00a0 Admittedly, this isn\u2019t a highly \u201cscientific\u201d thought process, but as shown it does have some merit.\u00a0 You\u2019ll see from the attached breakdown of expectations that HRW area is expected down roughly 1.3 million and SRW is expected down 0.4 million.\u00a0 Despite the fact that I believe overall wheat area might have some downside vs. the average guess, I will say I think there is some possible upside risk to that SRW figure as 2016\u2019s final planted area figure was reduced due to issues with prevent-plant.\u00a0 This does give some reason for pause against assuming the \u201cautomatic\u201d miss vs. the average guess.<\/p>\n
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DISCLAIMER<\/u><\/strong>:<\/strong> Grains – Export sales are out this morning before the more important USDA reports later in the afternoon.\u00a0 Here are expectations: Corn 450-900 Soybeans 400-800 Soymeal 40-160 Soyoil 5-30 Wheat 150-300 As you can see, expectations are down from what we\u2019ve been used to.\u00a0 This seems pretty reasonable as demand is shifting elsewhere on beans […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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