{"id":1713,"date":"2017-01-13T07:46:09","date_gmt":"2017-01-13T13:46:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ctsfutures.com\/?p=1713"},"modified":"2017-01-13T07:46:38","modified_gmt":"2017-01-13T13:46:38","slug":"morning-thoughts-2017-01-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Thoughts &#8211; Jan 13"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><u><a href="../wp-content\/uploads\/Nesvick.png\" alt=\"Nesvick\" width=\"287\" height=\"117\" \/><\/a>Grains<\/u> &#8211;<br \/>\nStream of consciousness thoughts today:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>As expected, WASDE lowered their meal production and increased their soyoil production despite no change to the overall soybean crush figure. Meal yields have not been solid to start the year, and despite the reduction I suppose it is still possible we will need to see further reductions in their yield estimate going forward.\u00a0 I could make an argument they might be a little too light on their yield still.\u00a0 So, the bottom line is we might have further downside to meal production and upside to oil production even with an unchanged crush.\u00a0 NOPA is out on Tuesday, and this will be something to watch in those figures.\u00a0 Additionally, I do wonder if WASDE might be a bit light on domestic meal demand while too high on soyoil exports.\u00a0 I think this is shaping up for potential loosening of the oil balance sheet while meal supply\/demand appears static at worst.\u00a0 I\u2019ll be watching the oilshare trade closely, as oil product value appears historically elevated and could be vulnerable.<\/li>\n<li>In case you were wondering, there is no strong tendency in any direction on what winter wheat area projections do from here. A breakdown of the recent history is attached in the chart, and as you can see there isn\u2019t much of a bias here.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1714\" src="../wp-content\/uploads\/Winter-Wheat-Area.png\" alt=\"Change from Jan to Final Winter Wheat Area\" width=\"232\" height=\"247\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>It is interesting to see soybean on-farm stocks represent such a small percentage of the total. The chart is attached below.\u00a0 Perhaps it is a meaningless statistic, but I do find it interesting.\u00a0 I suspect it means that the US farmer has been a willing seller of soybeans up to this point in the year leaving a larger share of stocks in the commercial\u2019s hands. That begs the question to what degree might commercials need to \u201cpush\u201d for beans later in the season?\u00a0 On-farm corn stocks as a percent of the total seem inline with recent years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-1715\" src="../wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Stocks-600x434.png\" alt=\"Percentage of Soybean Stocks On-Farm Dec 1\" width=\"600\" height=\"434\" srcset="../wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Stocks-600x434.png 600w, https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Stocks-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Stocks.png 865w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-1716\" src="../wp-content\/uploads\/Corn-Stocks-600x434.png\" alt=\"Percentage of Corn Stocks On-Farm Dec 1\" width=\"600\" height=\"434\" srcset="../wp-content\/uploads\/Corn-Stocks-600x434.png 600w, https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Corn-Stocks-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Corn-Stocks.png 865w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong><u>DISCLAIMER<\/u><\/strong><strong>:<\/strong><br \/>\nThe information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author\u00a0 and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or trading strategies of Nesvick Trading Group LLC and its subsidiaries. Nesvick Trading Group, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Officers, employees, and affiliates of Nesvick Trading Group, LLC may or may not, from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities and derivatives (for their own account or others), if any, referred to in this commentary. There is risk of loss in trading futures and options and it is not suitable for all investors. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RETURNS. Nesvick Trading Group LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties or any trading decision taken by persons not intended to view this material.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Grains &#8211; Stream of consciousness thoughts today: As expected, WASDE lowered their meal production and increased their soyoil production despite no change to the overall soybean crush figure. Meal yields have not been solid to start the year, and despite the reduction I suppose it is still possible we will need to see further reductions [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1715,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Morning Thoughts - Jan 13 - CTS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href="../wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Stocks.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"865\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"625\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"David Zelinski\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@CTSfutures\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@CTSfutures\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"David Zelinski\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/\",\"name\":\"Morning Thoughts - Jan 13 - CTS\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Stocks.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-01-13T13:46:09+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-01-13T13:46:38+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#\/schema\/person\/2ebea80d35d247463c6be35dcf694285\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Stocks.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Stocks.png\",\"width\":865,\"height\":625,\"caption\":\"Percentage of Soybean Stocks On-Farm Dec 1\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Morning Thoughts &#8211; Jan 13\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/\",\"name\":\"CTS\",\"description\":\"Cunningham Trading Systems\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#\/schema\/person\/2ebea80d35d247463c6be35dcf694285\",\"name\":\"David Zelinski\",\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/nesvick.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/author\/dzelinski\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Morning Thoughts - Jan 13 - CTS","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Morning Thoughts - Jan 13 - CTS","og_description":"Grains &#8211; Stream of consciousness thoughts today: As expected, WASDE lowered their meal production and increased their soyoil production despite no change to the overall soybean crush figure. Meal yields have not been solid to start the year, and despite the reduction I suppose it is still possible we will need to see further reductions [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/","og_site_name":"CTS","article_publisher":"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ctsfutures","article_published_time":"2017-01-13T13:46:09+00:00","article_modified_time":"2017-01-13T13:46:38+00:00","og_image":[{"width":865,"height":625,"url":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Stocks.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"David Zelinski","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@CTSfutures","twitter_site":"@CTSfutures","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"David Zelinski","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/","url":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/","name":"Morning Thoughts - Jan 13 - CTS","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Stocks.png","datePublished":"2017-01-13T13:46:09+00:00","dateModified":"2017-01-13T13:46:38+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#\/schema\/person\/2ebea80d35d247463c6be35dcf694285"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Stocks.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Stocks.png","width":865,"height":625,"caption":"Percentage of Soybean Stocks On-Farm Dec 1"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-01-13\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Morning Thoughts &#8211; Jan 13"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#website","url":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/","name":"CTS","description":"Cunningham Trading Systems","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#\/schema\/person\/2ebea80d35d247463c6be35dcf694285","name":"David Zelinski","sameAs":["http:\/\/nesvick.com"],"url":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/author\/dzelinski\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Soybean-Stocks.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1713"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1713"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1713\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1717,"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1713\/revisions\/1717"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}