<\/p>\n<\/a>Grains<\/u> –
\nExport sales are due this morning, here are expectations:
\nCorn 700-1,100
\nSoybeans 450-700
\nSoymeal 120-250
\nSoyoil 10-25
\nWheat 200-500<\/p>\n
Here were the flashed sales during the period:
\n1\/17\u2014103k mt corn to unknown for 16\/17
\n1\/19\u2014110k mt corn to unknown for 16\/17
\n1\/20\u2014126k mt corn to unknown for 16\/17<\/p>\n
So the first thing you notice is there were once again no flash sales of soybeans.\u00a0 Still, considering many end users are \u201chedging\u201d South American production\/logistics with further US sales I\u2019d still think we should come in somewhere near the low end of the range above.\u00a0 I don\u2019t have any major disagreements with the ranges shown above in general.<\/p>\n
I saw reports suggesting there is a Moore seasonal trade that kicked off yesterday buying SK vs. selling SMK.\u00a0 I found this a bit interesting in light of the recent rally in board crush margins. Though the chart shows it has backed off a bit in the past few days, the rally to start the year has been nothing short of impressive.\u00a0 The Moore seasonal would seem to be fading this strength.<\/p>\n
Looking at estimates for cash margins, we\u2019ve seen a modest bounce here lately but certainly nothing as dramatic.\u00a0 The chart attached showing my model probably understates actual margins a bit, but it is still a decent relative indicator and it shows no huge swing higher to start the year.\u00a0 In this backdrop, the Moore seasonal position does make some sense to me.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Yesterday\u2019s ethanol production estimate showed another strong weekly run rate, but it was once again accompanied by a strong build in inventories.\u00a0 While certainly not a record level, I could certainly call current inventory levels \u201celevated\u201d for this time of year.<\/p>\n
The build in stocks has had a significant impact on ethanol prices and production margins.\u00a0 Keep in mind the attached estimate off ethanol production margins doesn\u2019t even account for the impact of RINs in margins.\u00a0 RINs got monkey-hammered again yesterday.\u00a0 Since the EPA announced it was \u201cfreezing\u201d new regulations D6 RINs have fallen 20%.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
DISCLAIMER<\/u><\/strong>:<\/strong> Grains – Export sales are due this morning, here are expectations: Corn 700-1,100 Soybeans 450-700 Soymeal 120-250 Soyoil 10-25 Wheat 200-500 Here were the flashed sales during the period: 1\/17\u2014103k mt corn to unknown for 16\/17 1\/19\u2014110k mt corn to unknown for 16\/17 1\/20\u2014126k mt corn to unknown for 16\/17 So the first thing you […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1769,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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