Export markets are likely to be very quiet this week as you\u2019d expect during the Chinese holiday.\u00a0 Still, I think if the BRL strength continues without some upside support to soybean flat- price we\u2019ll see Brazilian exporters struggle to source ample soybeans over time<\/em>.\u00a0 Of course \u201cover time\u201d has to be a very popular expression among morning wire authors and combined with the \u201cif\u201d statement preceding it I have to acknowledge I have no idea what sort of timeframe it means.\u00a0 Clearly the Brazilian export program is already getting a good start this year. Combined with a slightly ahead of normal harvest pace, we\u2019ve also got some old crop supplies that are likely being funneled to the initial export shipments of the year.\u00a0 It\u2019ll be a few more days before we have official Jan data, but based on numbers we have to date we can ball park Jan shipments at roughly 1.5 mmt.\u00a0 As you can see from the attached chart this would be the best start to the export season in several years and certainly doesn\u2019t imply a problem in origination today.\u00a0 That said, I believe the longer the BRL remains this firm the less willing the Brazilian farmer will be to part with his soybeans.\u00a0 This will be a story that likely takes months to unfold.<\/p>\n DISCLAIMER<\/u><\/strong>:<\/strong> Grains – After briefly touching new highs soybean futures have been in correction mode for a little more than a week now.\u00a0 One market that appears to have no interest in any such corrections is the Brazilian real.\u00a0 The USD-BRL is on the verge of breaking into new lows, and remember on this cross the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1774,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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