<\/p>\n<\/a>Grains<\/u> –
\nNOPA will release their monthly crush report today.\u00a0 The Bloomberg survey shows expectations for the crush to total 158.9 mil bu, which would be up slightly from last year\u2019s 156.7 mil bu total. I won\u2019t sit here and have any major argument against this guess. The implied daily average crush would be up from last month, but not by a wide margin.\u00a0 Hitting this mark would also keep the WASDE 1,940 mil bu annual crush figure within reach.\u00a0 Attached I have a chart showing recent average daily crush figures and the blue line shows what would need to be seen for the remainder of the year to reach the WASDE projection.\u00a0 Keep in mind I\u2019m using the average guess for the March figure.\u00a0 While these averages would be the highest in several years, it seems reasonable to think these are achievable considering the commercial ownership of soybeans as illustrated in last month\u2019s Quarterly Stocks report.\u00a0 It would probably take a pretty big miss (lower) vs. the average guess for WASDE to consider any downside changes next month.<\/p>\n
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I\u2019ll also be watching the soyoil stocks figure and implications for implied disappearance.\u00a0 The average guess is for 1.812 bil lbs of stocks, and this is shown in the attached chart for the month of March.\u00a0 As you can see, this would be slightly under last year\u2019s stocks.\u00a0 I\u2019m going to take a low-confidence over<\/em> vs. the average guess.\u00a0 Though it was probably largely overlooked in last month\u2019s WASDE, they cut non-biodiesel domestic disappearance pretty sharply last month.\u00a0 As I\u2019ve pointed out here more than once, I think there are some reasons to be not completely confident in the biodiesel demand figure as well, so this soyoil balance sheet will be something worth keeping an eye on over the coming months if biodiesel and stocks figures start to look a bit less promising.<\/p>\n Also on tap today we have weekly export inspections.\u00a0 I think this will continue to show that exports are progressing at a pace that exceeds the current WASDE projection.\u00a0 I\u2019m still surprised they cut exports two months ago, and I think they\u2019ll eventually need to go higher here.\u00a0 So with crush steady and exports smaller, it appears for now the old crop soybean carryout is done getting smaller.\u00a0 This might be one reason the N\/X spread has been able to find some support recently.\u00a0 I understand many will still say this will move out to a carry overtime, but the likelihood of a smaller eventual carryout and a chart that has found some support might hold things together for a while.<\/p>\n Lastly today we have the weekly Crop Progress report.\u00a0 I\u2019m seeing one guess at today\u2019s corn planting progress of 8-9% complete compared to 3% last week and ~14% on average. This seems fairly reasonable to me.\u00a0 I\u2019m still a bit concerned that the market is leaning a bit too short right now into key growing season, but that won\u2019t matter til it matters.\u00a0 It is still very early…<\/p>\n Please note this is just a small sampling of commentary available to clients.\u00a0 Please visit \n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n
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