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The Fats & Oils report was an absolute hot mess.\u00a0 Firstly, the overall industry crush figure was presented at roughly 160 mil bu\u00a0 which is roughly 3 mil bu below what was implied based on the NOPA figure.\u00a0 The NASS crush figure was only 104.5% of the NOPA figure, which is the lowest percentage I show since the new F&O report began in 2015.\u00a0 It compares to an average of roughly 106.5% of NOPA.\u00a0 This is yet another signal that WASDE will have to lower their crush projection this month.\u00a0 I\u2019m starting to wonder if the final crush could be as low as 1,900 mil bu (or lower?).<\/p>\n
Making matters worse, the implied domestic meal use figure was literally off the chart low.\u00a0 I\u2019ve since reconfigured the chart and I\u2019ve attached it here.\u00a0 Now this isn\u2019t a huge surprise.\u00a0 Note we exported a massive amount of meal in March, and the basic arithmetic of this calculation would mean implied domestic use would suffer.\u00a0 Still, after this month\u2019s weak figure, MYTD implied domestic use is now running about 2% under last year.\u00a0 WASDE is currently forecasting a 2.6% YOY increase in domestic consumption.<\/p>\n
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The bottom line is I expect WASDE to lower their crush projection by at least 20 mil bu this month and this will be offset in the product balance sheets by lower domestic consumption.<\/p>\n
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