{"id":2110,"date":"2017-05-19T05:55:59","date_gmt":"2017-05-19T11:55:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ctsfutures.com\/?p=2110"},"modified":"2017-05-19T05:56:33","modified_gmt":"2017-05-19T11:56:33","slug":"morning-thoughts-2017-05-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-05-19\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Thoughts – May 19"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>Grains<\/u> –
\nNot sure what to say after yesterday\u2019s session.\u00a0 We knew the market would be under pressure following the news from Brazil but I\u2019ll have to admit I didn\u2019t expect a 30 cent decline yesterday.\u00a0 There was big pricing in Brazil yesterday, but estimates vary depending on who you ask.\u00a0 Some will say \u201conly\u201d 2 mmt of soybean pricing was seen while others would ballpark 3-4 mmt.\u00a0 Hard to know right now, and I\u2019m not really sure that it matters.<\/p>\n

First keep in mind that the lack of farmer selling<\/em> is not the same as lack of movement <\/em>of Brazilian supplies.\u00a0 The soybeans have certainly been moving well, as you can see from the chart of export shipments shown here.\u00a0 Brazilian export totals have set new highs in each month this year so far.\u00a0 What we should be saying rather than no farmer selling is no farmer pricing<\/em> has been seen.\u00a0 The pricing of a lot of previously moved soybeans is a factor that is going to weigh on the market for a bit here.\u00a0 But, make no mistake, the soybeans have been and likely will continue to flow out of Brazil.<\/p>\n

\"Brazil<\/p>\n

Keep in mind this strong movement really implies impressive global soybean demand.\u00a0 The other chart attached here shows a recent breakdown of combined US, Brazil, and Argentine soybean exports to the entire world.\u00a0 Again we\u2019re setting new highs each month this year, though I have to admit that the April figure is an unofficial estimate at this point.\u00a0 After the initial weakness here I\u2019d have to think the focus will gradually shift back to demand (or US crop prospects).<\/p>\n

\"Combined<\/p>\n

That said, the key item to watch right now will likely prove to be Brazilian export premiums.\u00a0 When you start to see some sort of stability develop there, then we might have seen this pricing run its course.\u00a0 Note the chart here showing June premiums, which had been creeping steadily higher and allowing the US to gain competitiveness for additional old crop exports.\u00a0 That will not likely be the case anymore…we\u2019ll see.<\/p>\n

\"Paranagua<\/p>\n

Keep in mind the situation in Argentina is a bit different.\u00a0 There the currency has remained weak, but farmers are more interested in selling\/moving corn right now.\u00a0 Soybeans in Argentina are still heavily taxed.\u00a0 The administration has promised to eventually lower taxes, and that essentially encourages hoarding of some degree.<\/p>\n

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