{"id":2122,"date":"2017-05-24T09:38:13","date_gmt":"2017-05-24T15:38:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ctsfutures.com\/?p=2122"},"modified":"2017-05-24T09:38:29","modified_gmt":"2017-05-24T15:38:29","slug":"morning-thoughts-2017-05-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-05-24\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Thoughts – May 24"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>Crops<\/u><\/strong> –
\nI mentioned yesterday I thought that some might be looking at early assumptions on Prevent Plant area and scaling back on those figures a bit.\u00a0 This seems reasonable considering the Northern Plains states typically<\/em> lead the way in terms of PP area and those areas have seen relatively decent planting progress thus far and appear (for now) to have a benign forecast.\u00a0 That being said, I did start looking at PP dates yesterday and I noticed that several southern states are approaching their \u201cfinal\u201d planting dates for corn and this might factor into planting decisions in the near future.\u00a0 The amount of area under consideration here is not insignificant.\u00a0 I\u2019ve attached a breakdown of estimated corn acres unplanted based on Monday\u2019s Crop Progress data.\u00a0 We don\u2019t have district-level planted area estimates yet, but I\u2019m using historical norms vs. state-total figures for these estimates.<\/p>\n

\"Estimated<\/p>\n

In particular I want to look at KS, CO, and MO for a moment.\u00a0 \u201cFinal\u201d planting dates for corn are fast approaching for a large majority of these states.\u00a0 I\u2019ll include the KS map below, but just keep in mind the date for most of eastern CO and western MO is May 25 as well.\u00a0 Northeastern MO\u2019s final planting date appears to be May 31.<\/p>\n

\"Kansas<\/p>\n

So looking at the first map above, we have roughly 1.6 million acres of unplanted corn in KS, 400k in CO, and roughly 220k in MO where final planting dates are fast approaching.\u00a0 How far past the final planting date will farmers be willing to go?\u00a0 I don\u2019t know the answer, and I\u2019m hopeful for any feedback you\u2019re willing to provide.\u00a0 Certainly I\u2019m not of the belief that we\u2019re looking at 2 mil acres lost here, but I do believe it is reasonable to assume that not all of this area will be planted.\u00a0 Certainly a favorable soil moisture profile in these areas might entice planting past the \u201cfinal\u201d date to take advantage of good conditions.\u00a0 But basis in KS specifically remains depressed and farm-level prices appear to be below the cost of production.\u00a0 If that is the case, why not take the PP? \u00a0Again, I\u2019d appreciate any feedback.<\/p>\n

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