{"id":2141,"date":"2017-06-07T06:51:22","date_gmt":"2017-06-07T12:51:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ctsfutures.com\/?p=2141"},"modified":"2017-06-07T06:51:39","modified_gmt":"2017-06-07T12:51:39","slug":"morning-thoughts-2017-06-07","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-06-07\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Thoughts – June 7"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>Crops<\/u><\/strong> –
\nWe\u2019re just a few days away from the Crop Production & WASDE reports, and that will be our primary focus for the remainder of the week.\u00a0 This morning I want to briefly discuss prospects for winter wheat production.\u00a0 Unfortunately, we still don\u2019t have much actual harvest data to work with as cutters are just now getting ready to cross into southern KS.\u00a0 Until we get a little more actual data, we\u2019re still going basically off of guess work here.<\/p>\n

During the summer months I\u2019ve shown before that NASS changes in their yield figures can sometimes be derived by observing the changes in crop condition ratings.\u00a0 I wonder if that would be the case with wheat and decided to look at the change in early-May to early-June condition ratings vs. the overall winter wheat production change from May to June.\u00a0 Note I\u2019m looking at production here and not yields.\u00a0 I actually did run yields as well, but the relationship was not very good at all.\u00a0 As you can see below, the relationship on the condition change and production change, while not concrete, is pretty decent.\u00a0 Obviously this is probably due to changes in harvested area and abandonment and how that factors into the yield projection.<\/p>\n

\"May<\/p>\n

So based on the scatter, I can\u2019t say I have any major beef against the average guess on production right now.\u00a0 I\u2019ve noted before that condition ratings might imply a slightly lower abandonment figure than NASS showed in their May report, but I also wonder if the current low price environment might skew that to the high end of a normal range?\u00a0 Long story short\u2026I think the average guess on production is good enough considering we won\u2019t know anything for certain until we get some combines rolling through Kansas.<\/p>\n

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