{"id":2150,"date":"2017-06-13T06:41:14","date_gmt":"2017-06-13T12:41:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ctsfutures.com\/?p=2150"},"modified":"2017-06-13T06:41:44","modified_gmt":"2017-06-13T12:41:44","slug":"morning-thoughts-2017-06-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-06-13\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Thoughts – June 13"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>Crops<\/u><\/strong> –
\nAs I\u2019ve alluded to a few times since Friday\u2019s WASDE, the lack of revision to the old crop soybean export figure has me perplexed.\u00a0 I really don\u2019t know how WASDE would explain it, but for the sake of argument I\u2019ve tried to approach the question with a bias of trying to understand where WASDE is coming from.<\/p>\n

\"USAttached to the right is a breakdown of the current soybean export program so far this marketing year.\u00a0 First remember once again we should be looking at Census<\/em> totals and not inspections or shipments.\u00a0 It seems every year this is forgotten.\u00a0 MYTD shipments through April total 1,862 mil bu.\u00a0 Based on the WASDE projection, it would mean Census exports will need to average roughly 47 mil bu monthly from May-Aug to hit their projection.\u00a0 May inspections totaled roughly 53 mil bu which supports the idea that Census should come in at least pretty close to its average necessary pace for May.<\/p>\n

Then looking forward, total outstanding sales this year are roughly 262 mil bu compared to 196 mil at this time last year.\u00a0 Even with a smaller sales total, shipments from this point last year averaged 80 mil bu per month, but I think it’s questionable to assume such a strong US program considering big SAM crops.\u00a0 Still, its not like we\u2019re done selling o\/c business so this also supports the idea that WASDE is too small on exports.<\/p>\n

All of that being said, I suppose where I can give WASDE a little leeway is at the very bottom.\u00a0 If you believe the WASDE export figure with today\u2019s current outstanding sales we\u2019d be looking at a rollover into n\/c of roughly 2 mmt.\u00a0 While that is above average, it certainly isn\u2019t a record and perhaps WASDE is looking at this as a justification for their current projection.\u00a0 I think this is a weak justification, but I suppose it is something.\u00a0 We\u2019re not done selling o\/c business of course, so that implied rollover assumption is only going to grow larger in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n

So, to repeat, WASDE once again appears in the dark on soybean export demand though their implied rollover assumption doesn\u2019t yet look outrageous.\u00a0 I still think they\u2019re way too low, and as mentioned yesterday I\u2019m personally assuming 2,125 mil bu (up 75 vs. WASDE).\u00a0 Thoughts appreciated.<\/p>\n

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