{"id":2186,"date":"2017-07-13T05:57:54","date_gmt":"2017-07-13T11:57:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ctsfutures.com\/?p=2186"},"modified":"2017-07-13T05:58:13","modified_gmt":"2017-07-13T11:58:13","slug":"morning-thoughts-2017-07-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-07-13\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Thoughts – July 13"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>Crops<\/u><\/strong> –
\nNo major remarks to make following yesterday\u2019s USDA report deluge.\u00a0 For the most part, things fell pretty close inline with our expectations yesterday.\u00a0 I didn\u2019t get everything right of course, but generally speaking things trended as expected.<\/p>\n

One thing I most certainly got wrong was the expectation for a smaller than expected spring wheat crop.\u00a0 I think NASS\u2019s starting point is clearly too optimistic.\u00a0 I\u2019ll present the following charts without much commentary as they pretty much speak for themselves\u2026.<\/p>\n

\"Other<\/p>\n

\"Other<\/p>\n

So clearly I think NASS is optimistic on their projections for both yield and harvested area.\u00a0 We\u2019ll see how this shapes up.\u00a0 Despite my pessimism towards crop prospects relative to NASS, I do view the MW board with some skepticism in the short term here as well.\u00a0 The speculative fervor has swelled in MW quickly, with lots of different news\/financial articles published on the move recently.\u00a0 It is plain that this market is loaded up with bullishness.\u00a0 In the long run, I think that is probably the right call.\u00a0 In the short run, we know corrections in such an illiquid market can be highly unforgiving.\u00a0 Be careful.<\/p>\n

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