News and Blog
Morning Thoughts – Apr 25
Grains - An all around interesting session yesterday. First off, note that oilshare did in fact make it back to my trigger point noted a week or so ago. It seemed like someone listened and oilshare was sold aggressively especially late in the session yesterday. ...
Morning Thoughts – Apr 19
Livestock - If it felt yesterday that I was picking on cattle hedgers for being short as the market went higher, I apologize. Today I want to present the spec positioning as shown on the latest COT report. The attached chart shows the percentage of open interest...
Morning Thoughts – Apr 17
Grains - NOPA will release their monthly crush report today. The Bloomberg survey shows expectations for the crush to total 158.9 mil bu, which would be up slightly from last year’s 156.7 mil bu total. I won’t sit here and have any major argument against this guess....
Morning Thoughts – Apr 11
Grains – We have the WASDE update later this morning, though as WASDE reports go this should not be a major market-mover. Keep in mind we won’t get 17/18 balance sheets until next month’s report. Wheat – Following the Quarterly Stocks report, it seems fairly obvious that…
Morning Thoughts – Apr 7
Financials - We have a very important NFP figure to digest this morning. Following the blow-out ADP report earlier this week, many are looking for a similar “beat” from the NFP today. The attached scatter chart, however, shows why that might not be the smartest bet....
Morning Thoughts – Apr 6
Grains - Admittedly the below information will be stale immediately upon the release of this morning’s sales report, but I still thought it might be worth a quick look (and with nothing else going on). This shows a breakdown of MYTD commitments to key destinations and...
Morning Thoughts – Apr 5
Grains - Overlooked by all the NASS data released on Monday, the EIA updated biodiesel production for January. As expected, biodiesel production dropped sharply in January following the expiration of the blending tax credit at CY 2016 end. Total soyoil inputs for...
Morning Thoughts – Apr 3
Grains - Just some short stream of consciousness this morning: Friday’s report numbers were obviously bearish. For soybeans, it is likely o/c residual use needs to be revised down a bit, but WASDE might not feel the need to do that yet. For their n/c balance sheet in...
Morning Thoughts – Mar 29
Grains - A few quick thoughts on winter wheat area for Friday’s report. As shown in the breakdown below, there is a tendency for NASS to find a few more winter wheat acres for the March report than they originally estimate in Jan. The usual difference is not that...
Morning Thoughts – Mar 28
Grains - This morning we’re looking at some of the acreage numbers ahead of the report on Friday. For reference, here is a quick breakdown of the average guesses: Today we’re simply looking at whether there is any tendency of the average guesses vs. the actual USDA...
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