News and Blog
Morning Thoughts – Jan 25
Grains - Though it has been well over a week since the USDA’s Grain Stocks report, I thought it might be worth a quick look at the annual breakdown of US grain storage capacity and how Dec 1 stocks look in reference to capacity. USDA reported that total on-farm...
Morning Thoughts – Jan 24
Financials - Big news out of the UK this morning as the supreme court ruled that PM May must seek an act of Parliament to trigger the two-year countdown to Brexit. The ruling passed by an 8-3 vote. The judges also ruled that legislatures in Scotland and Northern...
Morning Thoughts – Jan 23
Grains - The old saying of course is “oats knows”, but I found it somewhat humorous that virtually nobody knows what is going on behind the latest oats rally. I will state unequivocally that I know very little about oats, but I’ve done some asking around to people...
Treasuries Move Lower
Wednesday the Bond ground lower than I had expected as the USH traded in a slightly above average 1-29-point daily range (avg. is 1-21-pts) and settled down 1-09-points on the session at 152-01. I am happy to see both the Bond and Ten-year continue to hold…
Morning Thoughts – Jan 19
Financials - Fed Chair Yellen gave a speech in SF late yesterday and her comments were deemed as slightly hawkish. The dollar firmed modestly following her remarks and Fed Funds dropped slightly. The key comment off the newswires was she and “most colleagues expect...
Morning Thoughts – Jan 18
Softs - Brazil’s Conab issued their first official projection for 2017 coffee production yesterday. Conab is projecting coffee output in a range of 43.7-47.5 million bags, which would be down fairly significantly from 51.4 million in 2016. The smaller crop doesn’t...
Morning Thoughts – Jan 17th
Grains - Last week saw the index rebalance come and go, and I thought it might be worth a quick look to see what OI did to see if it matched projections. Corn OI was up roughly 75k from Friday to Friday. This seems pretty inline with expectations heading into the...
Treasuries Move Lower Amid Conflicting Technical Signals
It took all session to sell-off (so far a minor correction) as the USH tested my maximum upper daily boundary and key resistance level at 154-03 (see several past reports). The USH traded in a below average 1-13-point daily range and settled on the session low…
Morning Thoughts – Jan 13
Grains - Stream of consciousness thoughts today: As expected, WASDE lowered their meal production and increased their soyoil production despite no change to the overall soybean crush figure. Meal yields have not been solid to start the year, and despite the reduction...
Treasuries Test Resistance Overnight
Bonds and 10-Year Test Daily Boundary During the overnight hours Bond and Ten-year futures came within a tick or two or tested my upside daily boundary levels. USH topped out at 153-31, just shy of my 154-03 level, while TYH peaked at 125-10+ compared to 125-08/10....
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