News and Blog
Morning Thoughts – Jan 12
Grains - Export sales are out this morning before the more important USDA reports later in the afternoon. Here are expectations: Corn 450-900 Soybeans 400-800 Soymeal 40-160 Soyoil 5-30 Wheat 150-300 As you can see, expectations are down from what we’ve been used...
Steven Orfanos on Bonds and Notes
I have been in the futures industry for 30 years. I worked at JPMorgan for 21 years and have run my own business since 2007. I write and analyze 30 and 10 year futures and have been compiling this report for 26 years. If you would like to learn more about…
Morning Thoughts – Jan 11
Grains - Today we’ll focus mainly on the Quarterly Grain stocks portion of Thursday’s USDA reports. I always hesitate to cover expectations for stocks figures as they are notoriously unpredictable and it always provides a good opportunity to look foolish. For the...
Morning Thoughts – Jan 10
Financials - Overnight markets have been fairly quiet it appears with only modest gains in world equity markets noted. The UK’s FTSE 100 has hit new record highs each day this new year so far, largely as a result of the pound weakness since the start of the year. If...
Morning Thoughts – Jan 9
Grains - The index rebalance looms large this week. I believe the rebalance efforts “officially” start tomorrow but I think we’d be fooling ourselves if we didn’t think some of the necessary actions have already been taken. We also have to remember that this is very...
Morning Thoughts – Jan 6
Grains - The US soybean export program has begun its seasonal decline and you can start to see things picking up in Brazil now. The soybean line-up for export is still under year-ago levels, but I don’t think it’ll take long for the line-up to exceed last year. In...
Morning Thoughts – Jan 5
Grains - When reviewing the Fats & Oils report, implied domestic meal consumption turned out to be pretty solid during the month of Nov. We don’t have official Census trade data just yet so this is subject to change, but implied domestic meal disappearance in Nov...
Morning Thoughts – Jan 4
Grains - Lots of data from NASS released yesterday after the close. We got the monthly Grain Crushing report and this showed corn used in ethanol production totaled 451.9 mil bu last month, down slightly form 455 mil bu the prior month. This is inline with...
Morning Thoughts – Jan 3
Grains - The EIA updated with biodiesel production figures on Friday, but unfortunately the data is only current through the end of Oct. The EIA reported biodiesel production of 142 mil gal which is the highest I have on record going back to 2011. Soyoil use in...
Morning Thoughts – Dec 28
Grains - It is perhaps worth noting that the Brazilian soybean export line-up is starting to show signs of perking up. The line-up posted yesterday showed the largest soybean tonnage seen since early fall. Though still below last year’s levels, which weighed on...
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