Financials –
Overnight markets have been fairly quiet it appears with only modest gains in world equity markets noted. The UK’s FTSE 100 has hit new record highs each day this new year so far, largely as a result of the pound weakness since the start of the year. If the FTSE were to close higher today, it would mark nine consecutive record high closes, which according to Bloomberg would be a record itself.
The dollar has started the new year on a rocky note. This is likely partly due to the minor miss in NFP, but perhaps it is mostly due to the relatively stretched nature of positioning coming into the year. The attached chart shows the total net FX position in CME contracts. The lower this figure goes, the more short managed money is other currencies and thus the more long they are USD. Though the positioning is not a record, it is relatively extended and might help explain the modest pause in the USD we’ve seen so far this year.
The only economic data out overnight worth noting is Chinese inflation data. PPI continues to come in hot, gaining 5.5% YOY compared to the average guess for a 4.6% gain. CPI, however, was a bit soft coming in at 2.1% YOY vs 2.2% expected. The PPI figure will likely get the most attention as it could renew calls that China will “export” their inflation…or at the very least they have turned the corner on exporting deflation.
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