Grains –
We’ve got a wet look to the forecast through northern Brazil and so we’ve got to keep a close eye on soybean harvest progress as it relates to safrinha planting progress in Mato Grosso. Obviously Mato Grosso accounts for a large majority of the safrinha corn crop and the early planting of soybeans this past fall has fueled hopes for early planting of safrinha. The data from IMEA show these hopes are well-placed, for now.
IMEA shows MT soybean harvest progress of 16.25%, which is up considerably from only 8% last year. IMEA is also showing corn planting progress at 10.2% complete compared to just 5% at this point last year. So for now things are smoothly transitioning into safrinha corn planting but we’ll of course need to closely monitor the weather over the coming weeks. We also have to remember that this part of the world is basically the rainforest, and consecutive days of rain in this area won’t necessarily produce the same headaches that we’d see here.
The Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit took place yesterday and this was good for a few good soundbites. Talking out of both sides of his mouth, head RFA lobbyist Dinneen said the current market is “bleak” but also noted the industry is “enthusiastic”. It makes me wonder how bleak the current market must be considering production has been running at record levels lately? It also makes me wonder how “bleak” it would be if the government wasn’t mandating demand for their product? Other speakers noted they believe the RFS will be “tweaked” under the Trump Administration, likely changing the point of compliance for meeting the mandate. I’m not exactly sure how this might affect ethanol/biodiesel prices themselves, but the RINs market has been a complete mess since this change was first hinted about by Icahn several weeks ago.
On tap for today we have the weekly ethanol production report. I would expect to see a modest reduction in production runs considering margins have been squeezed and the inverse has vanished. Ethanol remains an export-driven market right now.
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