Grains –
A few quick thoughts on winter wheat area for Friday’s report. As shown in the breakdown below, there is a tendency for NASS to find a few more winter wheat acres for the March report than they originally estimate in Jan. The usual difference is not that large, however, and note last year saw a modest reduction in area from the Jan estimate. I’m tempted to make the dumb statement “but how much smaller can it really get” here, but I’ll just simply state that I have no strong bias for what to expect on Friday. Simply put, any adjustment to the winter wheat area is likely to be fairly minor. Looking ahead, you can see there is a slight tendency for the final winter wheat area estimate to decline vs. the March report.
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