Grains –
Admittedly the below information will be stale immediately upon the release of this morning’s sales report, but I still thought it might be worth a quick look (and with nothing else going on).
This shows a breakdown of MYTD commitments to key destinations and in total. Looking at soybeans first, the demand growth in China has been solid so far this year but everywhere else seems relatively flat. Note that the current commitment total is roughly 11 mmt larger than at this point last year. At this point last year WASDE was behind the curve, clearly not expecting the late-season surge in shipments. With no such surge likely this year thanks to solid SAM crops, one can’t argue too aggressively with the WASDE projection here.
Basically the same can be noted in corn. WASDE was obviously way behind the curve at this point last year showing only a 1,650 when it actually turned out to be close to 1,900. It appears WASDE is more on top of things this time around. Keep in mind Brazil’s presumably large safrinha crop won’t compete with US exports until 17/18, so I’d suppose there is still an argument for some upside to current WASDE projection.
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