Crops –
Spring wheat speculation is all the buzz right now so allow me to jump on the bandwagon and pretend I know what I’m talking about in regards to HRS. We know one of the first questions that can come up in years of poor conditions is abandonment of area. Attached here I have a chart showing a scatter of years 2003-2016 showing P/VP conditions vs. % of planted area harvested. You can see there is a pretty strong relationship here and certainly one in which we can reasonably assume this year’s abandonment is likely to be larger than usual. Note these are final condition ratings, and I have indicated the current rating with the line on the chart. Certainly we could see conditions improve from here.
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