Introducing Steven Orfanos
I have been in the futures industry for 30 years. I worked at JPMorgan for 21 years and have run my own business since 2007. I write and analyze 30 and 10 year futures and have been compiling this report for 26 years. If you would like to learn more about myself or my report, please see my website at www.orftech.com or follow me on Twitter @sorfanos1
Bonds
The Bond successfully consolidated within my daily projection (151-25 to 153-01) and traded in a narrower range than I had expected. The USH traded in an extremely narrow 24-tick daily range and settled down 6-ticks on the session at 152-17. As the Bond struggles to break my minimum target 153-01, I would like to take you back to what I wrote at the beginning of the year. The Treasury market finished 2016 establishing a small recovery, I said look for early gains during the first half of the month. Now that we held below 153-01, I look for limited gains and consolidation with a bias towards selling this uptick and projecting a move lower later in the week. Keep in mind it will take two consecutive settlements below 148-10 to confirm lower prices and break above 153-01 and 154-03 to embrace the call for higher prices. Today the USH should trade between at least 151-25 possibly 151-06/04 and at least 153-01 or 153-08/10. If the upper level is broken the Bond should test 153-22 and 154-03.
Support can be found at 152-08, 151-25/23, 151-06/04, 150-30, 150-22/18, 150-06, 149-16/15, 149-10/08, 149-04/02, 148-27, 148-15/14, 148-12/10, 148-00, 147-21, 147-14/13, 147-04, 146-25, 146-14, 145-31, 145-09 and 144-08. Resistance should be met at 152-28, 153-00/01, 153-22, 154-03, 155-13, 157-17, 160-11, 160-24, 161-11, 162-20, 163-17, 163-23/25 and 163-30.
Ten Year Notes
The Ten-year consolidated in a tighter range than I had expected (124-18 to 125-00/02). The TYH traded in an extremely narrow 9+-tick daily range and settled down half a tick on the session at 124-24+. There is no change to the technical outlook as the Treasury market has successfully extended the 3-week recovery to my target of 125-02 and 125-10. As previously mentioned it would take a move above these levels for me to embrace a call for a move to at least 126-05 and 126-16. However on the other side of the technical view the short-term trend is bearish and targets 122-22 and 122-02. I maintain the view from several weeks ago it will take two consecutive settlements below 123-03 to target the 32 year Bull trendline (121-08) and 119-31. Look for consolidation however as the market struggles to break 125-02 and 125-10 I look for weakness later in the week. Today the TYH should trade between at least 124-18 possibly 124-13/10 and 125-00/02. If the upper level is broken the TYH should test 125-08/10. If the lower level is broken the Note should test 124-00.
Support can be found at 124-18 (minor), 124-10/09, 124-00, 123-28, 123-24/22, 123-17/15, 123-07, 123-00, 122-26, 122-14, 122-02+, 121-16 and 121-08. Resistance should be met at 124-26, 125-00/02, 125-08, 125-10, 126-05, 126-16, 127-10, 128-15 and 128-21/24.
DISCLAIMER
Investment Newsletter – The information in this investment newsletter has been carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it as to accuracy, completeness or in any other way. Orfanos Research & Trading, LLC, its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates might from time to time buy or sell the financial products mentioned herein, without notice, and if this concerns you then do not follow our recommendations. The Orfanos Research & Trading, LLC daily technical commentary is intended solely for information purposes and is not to be deemed a prospectus or a solicitation of orders. Past results are not a guarantee for the future.
